More bad news: Tougher economic times do not mean Polish workers are returning to their homeland

From: Guardian

Be careful: Sometimes they try to move to a third country

Contrary to some suggestions, Poles are not escaping Britain – we are trying to survive here. Since 2004, more than 2 million Poles – mostly young – have gone abroad in search of work. They left mainly because of the following factors: demographic (the 1980 "baby boom" generation), economic (discrepancies in salaries in Poland) and political (the opportunity to work legally thanks to Poland's entry into the EU).

It is very difficult to estimate how many of those two million migrated to Britain, and it is even harder to estimate the number who have returned. Different countries adopt different definitions of a "returning migrant". Sometimes people tell researchers they are thinking of returning, but in reality they try to postpone the final decision for as long as possible. Sometimes they return home and, after not being able to find a job, return to the country where they originally emigrated. Sometimes they try to move to a third country.

The history of economic upheavals, such as the oil crisis in 1973, should teach us that recessions do influence the outflow of migrants (it becomes lower). However, they do not stimulate return migration. During recessions most local inhabitants are trying to survive and stop being so mobile (both professionally and within their own country). With jobs insecure or in short supply, it is a time "to wait and see".

So it is important that journalists, experts and politicians on both sides share the data available. There is plenty of misleading information in this field which, in my opinion, is mainly harmful for Polish migrants. These are just people who migrated to find a better life abroad and decent working conditions. Most of them are trying to survive an economic crisis abroad, which is a very challenging task. So why do I think Poles are not going home in the numbers suggested by the British government?

The most recent estimates by Poland's Central Statistical Office (CSO), based on census data, put the number of Poles who have migrated for work at 2.21 million in 2008, of whom 650,000 are in Britain. In 2007 the figures were 2.27 million and 690,000 respectively, and in 2006 1.95 million and 580,000.

So according to our data there were never a million Poles in Britain – as sometimes reported – but nor did half of them come back home. The number of Poles in Britain dropped by only 40,000 in 2008. However, at the same time countries including Norway, the Netherlands and Denmark observed a small increase in the number of Poles. According to the same source, 70% of Poles stay abroad for at least one year.

In order to know what really happened in 2009, we have to wait until July or August of this year, when all the data from various sources will be available to the Central Statistical Office). The observed drop in remittances (of around 20%, in comparison with the same periods during 2008) recorded by the Polish National Bank for the first three quarters of 2009 may suggest that the economic situation of Polish migrants in Britain deteriorated substantially.

The history of migration also teaches us that after a period of time – usually five years – migrants' loyalties and ties change from their homeland to the receiving countries, and they therefore stop sending money home. Instead, they try to persuade family members to join them abroad. The small number of dependants of Polish migrants recorded by the Home Office appears to confirm this.

Note: These lies were written by somebody named Krystyna Iglicka